PPM Insights

Where Have All the Listeners Gone?

RBR.com today published a PPM analysis by Randy Kabrich contrasting Houston PPM trends to those of Philadelphia and New York. He shows that while Persons Using Radio (PUR) are relatively constant across all three markets, Houston's top stations have been fairly stable while top stations in the other markets have lost considerable cume. Read his analysis here.

Harker Research has also noted a serious erosion of station cume in Philadelphia and New York. While some of the losses can be explained by market dynamics, there are other declines that defy logic. Randy attributes the differences to differing recruitment methods. While his hypothesis is only one of several possible explanations, he's probably on to something. We see nothing to suggest that the broad station cume losses are real.

In the on-going debate over PPM, we should not forget that Arbitron has not just replaced the paper diary with the PPM. They have changed virtually every aspect of the ratings process, from the way people are recruited to the analysis software. Arbitron continues to make methodological changes that may have unintended consequences and an unpredictable impact on the ratings.

2006 Flashback: Arbitron PPM Rollout Will Be By The Book

On July 31, 2006, RBR.com reported:

Bill Kelly, VP/MM for Clear Channel Youngstown and Chairman of the Arbitron Radio Industry Advisory Council, told RBR that the Council was assured that upcoming roll-out plans for PPM in Houston and Philadelphia would go forward only with proper MRC accreditation. "They're playing it by the rules," he said. He said Arbitron assured the Council that it believed in the MRC's process. It will not just sit around waiting for MRC's blessing. In Philadelphia, it is getting things ready so the program will pop once it is cleared. That includes recruiting survey participants and providing updated encoders to Philadelphia radio stations.

This proves it is much easier to "play by the rules" when you get to make up the rules.

Station PPM Ratings and In-Tabs

Harker Research has long observed that as the number of Arbitron diaries in a cell increased, the ratings of stations targeting that cell rose. And conversely, if Arbitron fell short in a demo, some stations would suffer much greater loses than others. Now Randy Kabrich has documented a similar phenomenon with PPM.

As reported in today's RBR.com here, the ratings of both KMJQ and KBXX rose in virtual lock-step with an increase of Houston's Black in-tab. It stands to reason that as additional African-Americans are added to the panel, that stations targeting African-Americans would benefit, but according to Arbitron, this should not happen. Arbitron uses a complex weighting process that balances each day's PPM data according to age, sex, race, and county of residence so that the day's panel represents the market's characteristics. Theoretically, as more Black PPMs are added to the sample, the weight of each Black PPM goes down. As a result, there should be no relationship between station performance and panel composition. Look at Mr. Kabrich's data and you be the judge.

Philadelphia PPM In-Tabs Crater

Inside Radio reports today that the Philadelphia April PPM in-tabs reached their lowest level in eight months. The second week of April, total 6+ in-tab was 1,524. Arbitron's target is 1,530. The company has argued that declines were inevitable as they worked to increase 25-34 sample. While 25-34 has increased from 141 persons to 167, a gain of 26, total in-tab has declined 292 persons.

Despite an MRC requirement that standard error information accompany all ratings reports, Arbitron has yet to publish any data that would tell us what kind of reliability we get with these cell sizes. Given the big rating swings we've seen,  margins of error are probably pretty large.

UK Chooses On-Line Diary over PPM

RAJAR is the UK's cooperative radio ratings service. It has been a leader in studying electronic measurement, testing PPM as early as 2004 as well as testing alternative measuring devices such as the Eurisko and IPSOS meters side by side with PPM.

It may come as a shock then, that RAJAR as elected to abandon electronic measurement. They cite a number of reasons including respondent compliance, sample sizes, panel construction, and cost.

The press release that announced the decision is perhaps the most objective over-view of where radio measurement stands today, so we are reproducing it in its entirety below. We have highlighted a number of key passages that are particularly relevant for US broadcasters. You can also find the press release in the Adobe Acrobat format here.

N E W S  R E L E A S E  Issued April 28, 2008

RAJAR REVIEWS FUTURE DIRECTION OF RADIO AUDIENCE RESEARCH 

RAJAR is to undertake an industry-wide review of the future direction of radio audience research and draw up a new three-year strategic plan which is to be published in the latter part of 2008, it was announced today, Monday April 28, 2008.  This move follows a unanimous decision by the RAJAR Board to draw a line under its current investment in personal meter testing and actively investigate the introduction of a new online digital survey.

The radio medium has changed rapidly in the past four years, not only in terms of convergence and consolidation but also in terms of the rapid developments in mobile technology and the increasing significance of podcasting and time-shifted listening.  RAJAR is fully cognisant of the pace of these advances and changes, as well as the resultant needs of the industry for an audience research system that offers a modern, flexible and more widely encompassing service suitable for the digital age.

As a first step RAJAR has hired Morag Blazey, former chief executive officer of PHD Media Ltd, to undertake an industry-wide consultation.  She has been tasked to elicit feedback on how the RAJAR survey should move forward in the coming years.  She will also address the issues and concerns of the radio and advertising industries on a raft of topics from the scope and content of the current survey, to reporting and trading turn-around times and proposed innovations including the value of bigger samples, the introduction of an online diary and future requirements for podcasting, programming information, time-shifted listening and event response.

Blazey is to consult with a range of key radio and advertising industry stake holders and her findings, coupled with the results of the online survey, will feed into RAJAR’s new three year strategy which is to be announced later this year.   

Comments Morag Blazey:  “The pace of change in the radio market is dizzying, and quite rightly RAJAR feels it is necessary to keep pace in order to serve its users as effectively as possible.  The project I have been asked to undertake is really interesting, far reaching and genuinely democratic in its intent.  I am really excited to be part of it.”

MORE


Meanwhile RAJAR is currently working on the possible introduction of a new online diary which would give the radio industry more flexibility, wider scope and the option of greater in depth analysis.  Leading international research agency, Nunwood, has already been commissioned to design an online, interactive diary which is to be field tested in July 2008.  IPSOS Media (RAJAR’s current fieldwork contractor) is working closely with Nunwood and, subject to the results of the consultation and the field tests, could be tasked to develop a model for the integration of the online diary into the main survey (alongside the existing diary) in the near future. 

Comments Sally de la Bedoyere, RAJAR’s managing director: “RAJAR’s vision is to offer a modern and more widely encompassing service for the digital age and the consultation, we hope, will give us a clear mandate to move forward on a range of issues.  For instance we would like to become the first port of call, not only for audience data, but for measuring engagement, programme changes and event response.  We would like to offer bigger samples and reduce costs.  We would like to measure all audio distribution regardless of digital or analogue platform; live or listen again; fixed, mobile, or personal listening device; out loud or on headphones; alone or collectively; in the home, the car, the office or elsewhere.  We would like to work closely with organisations such as ABC-e and JICIMS to encourage standard metrics and measuring of all station websites and traffic.  We would like to be able to adapt the survey quickly as needs change, and deliver greater details with the same clarity as is currently used to reflect trend.

“In addition, RAJAR would like to be in a position to provide more frequent data, loading seamlessly into an enhanced, user-friendly trading system supporting agencies, advertisers and stations should this be their desire, and to provide up to the minute data for all audio and music broadcasts.

“I am delighted, therefore, that Morag Blazey has agreed to undertake our industry-wide consultation.  She is well respected throughout the radio industry and beyond.  I am confident she will assist RAJAR in obtaining as broad a picture as possible, from all sectors of the industry, of the requirements for radio audience research over the next three years so that we may formulate a comprehensive, future-proof strategy.”


MORE

The decision by the RAJAR Board (which represents all sectors of the radio and advertising industries) to draw a line under its current investment in the experimental electronic measurement panel in London, (launched in January 2007 as a joint venture with BARB) was unanimous.  Following a review of the first year’s research it was felt that the pace of change and innovation within the industry needed swifter action than electronic measurement is able to offer at this juncture. It has therefore been agreed with TNS (the panel contractor) to cease further data collection from the end of June 2008, and to focus solely on analysing the data already obtained.  The Board has also concluded that electronic measurement will not form part of the 2009 RAJAR contract due to significant concerns regarding issues of panellists’ behaviour and the feasibility of meter measurement to deliver a credible UK currency for the entire industry, at an affordable cost.

De la Bedoyere continued:  “The RAJAR Board’s decision to draw a line under its current investment in the audiometer panel with TNS and actively pursue online diaries is a rational and pragmatic one.  Over the past year the pilot has delivered a wealth of data but it has continued to high-light serious concerns with respondent compliance, particularly at breakfast time.  In addition, the pilot has thrown up a range of concerns involving sample sizes, panel composition and the practicalities of operating a panel for the entire UK radio market.  It was in the light of these concerns, as well as the prospect of a doubling of the financial burden once BARB decided not to renew its involvement in the panel for a second year, that the decision was made.

“The radio industry spends proportionately more on research than any other medium in the UK.  Indeed, RAJAR has led the world and invested £3.5 million into pioneering and extensive research into emergent methodologies including audiometers, all of which we believe will stand us in good stead in the future.  However, at this point in time, with the industry changing at such a pace and with a raft of new technologies being introduced into the market place we need flexible, pragmatic and affordable innovations which can be introduced into the survey as soon as possible.

“We are looking forward eagerly to the results of Morag Blazey’s consultation with the industry which we are hoping will provide us with a clear direction on how the radio industry would like to move forward.  In addition, her findings will be crucial to the shaping of RAJAR’s next three year strategy which is to be announced towards the end of this year.”   

MORE



Comments Jenny Abramsky, director, BBC Radio and Music:
"RAJAR has a strong vision for the future of radio audience research and these measures should appeal to respondents and give RAJAR vital new information in a flexible way."

Comments Andrew Harrison, chief executive, RadioCentre
“RAJAR is one of the most robust audience measurement surveys in the world and has a proven track record of pro-actively evaluating new technologies.  It is therefore great news that steps are being taken to move the survey online which provides an opportunity to keep RAJAR relevant to its valued respondents in a digital age.  In the last couple of years we have seen a huge shift in the way people listen to radio and I’m delighted that Morag Blazey will be undertaking a consultation to ensure we continue to have the best measurement system that captures all listening now and into the future.”


ENDS


For further information please contact: Penelope James
Penelope James Public Relations
Tel:  01303 844555
E-mail: penelope@penelopejamespr.com





 







NOTES TO EDITORS

RADIO AUDIENCE RESEARCH FACTS 

THE RAJAR SURVEY– new developments since 1999


New personal repertoire diary introduced to cope with the increasing number of stations ( c. 150 in 1999, now approximately 350 stations)

Individual diary placement

Continuous reporting / rolling sample introduced

Platform listening – Internet, DAB, DTV 

Monitoring of mobile phone listening and headphone listening

Monitoring of listening via podcast and listen again

Increased efficiency of sample - sampling segments reduced by approximately 50% (move from postcode sector to postcode districts)

Improved sampling and reporting

Faster data delivery

SPEND
The radio industry spends more on audience research per annum versus revenue than any other medium.  Currently spend is approximately:

RAJAR £7 million on research vis a vis revenue of £535 million

Compared to:

BARB  £17 million on research vis a vis revenue of £4,600 million

NRS £5 million on research vis a vis revenue of £2,200 million

RESEARCH
RAJAR has spent £3.5 million on research into audio meters since 2001 and has tested four audiometers:

Arbitron Portable People Meter

Eurisko Media Monitor

IPSOS-RSL audiometer

RadioControl MediaWatch

RAJAR entered a joint venture with BARB in January 2007 which saw the establishment of an experimental electronic measurement panel in the London area.